The Waiting Game Gamble: Should You Buy Property Now or Hold Out for an RBA Rate Cut?

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With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holding interest rates steady this month, the nation is now watching May with bated breath. Will we finally see a cut? Or will the wait stretch on?

If you’re thinking about entering the property market, the temptation to wait for a lower rate is strong. After all, wouldn’t it be smarter to buy when borrowing is cheaper?

But in today’s economic landscape, betting on the timing of rate cuts could be a risky move, and one that may end up costing more than it saves.

Let’s take a look at some key factors to help you determine whether it’s time to jump in, or hold out a little longer…

 

The latest from the RBA

So far in 2025, we’ve seen one cut and one hold of the cash rate. Despite market chatter, there’s no guarantee of when the next cut will land.

Here’s what we know:

  • March 2025: Rate cut to 4.10% – the first since November 2020. 
  • April 2025: No rate change from the RBA.
  • Major banks’ forecasts: Anywhere between 2 to 5 rate cuts this year.
  • Historical trends: Past rate cycles often involved two quick cuts followed by a pause.

But this time, the script is looking different. Inflation, global market pressures, and a tight labour market could delay any cuts for months.

If you’re waiting for another drop before making a move, you might be waiting longer than you’d planned.

 

How Interest Rates Shape the Property Market

Interest rates definitely influence the property market—but it’s not always black and white.

When rates go down:

  • Mortgage repayments get cheaper
  • Buyers can borrow more
  • Demand usually rises, which can push prices up

But it’s not always a straight line. The way the market responds depends on a few other big factors – like how confident buyers are, how much housing stock is available, and what’s happening in the wider economy.

So while interest rates matter, they’re just one piece of a much bigger puzzle.

 

Is Waiting Worth It? The Hidden Costs of Holding Off

A lot of buyers are asking the same question right now:
Should I buy now, or wait for rates to fall?

Let’s break it down:

Scenario Pros Cons
Buy Now – Less buyer competition

– More room to negotiate

– Prices may be softer

 – Higher interest rate

– Bigger repayments (at least for now)
Wait for a Rate Cut – Lower repayments

– More borrowing power

 – More competition

– Prices may rise

– Harder negotiation

 

A few other things to think about:

  • When rates fall, the crowd returns. More buyers hit the market, which can drive up prices quickly.
  • Cheaper money doesn’t always mean a better deal. A lower interest rate on a more expensive home might actually cost you more in the long run.
  • Fewer buyers means more wiggle room. Right now, sellers may be more willing to negotiate – especially with less activity in the market.

Bottom line? Trying to time the market perfectly is almost impossible. You’re better off buying when you’re ready—financially, emotionally, and strategically, rather than holding out for the “perfect” rate that may never arrive.

 

It’s Not Just About Rates: What Else Moves the Market

Interest rates make headlines, but they’re not the only force driving property prices.

Other big influences include:

  • Population Growth: Even a 1% population rise could trigger an 8.18% increase in property prices.
  • Housing supply: Not enough homes on the market keeps upward pressure on prices
  • Migration trends: More people = more demand
  • Infrastructure upgrades: New schools, train stations or shopping centres can boost local values
  • Economic confidence: When people feel secure in their jobs, they’re more likely to buy

All of this means that even if rates stay put, property prices can, and often do, keep rising.

 

Time in the Market > Timing the Market

You’ve probably heard this one before: “Time in the market beats timing the market.”

And it’s especially true with property. Over the last few decades, Australian property values have risen steadily – even during times of high interest.

Trying to predict the market is risky. Holding property over the long term? That’s a proven strategy.

 

Making a Smart Move: What Should You Be Considering?

Before making any decisions, take stock of your financial situation and your goals.

Here’s a quick checklist to help:

  • Am I financially stable with a steady income?
  • Can I comfortably afford repayments at current (but also at slightly higher) rates?
  • Have I researched the suburb I’m looking to buy in?
  • Am I prepared to hold the property for 5–10 years?
    Do I have a clear strategy for capital growth or rental yield?

If you’re ticking most of those boxes, waiting for a slightly better rate may not be worth the risk of missing out on a good opportunity now.

 

Should You Gamble on the Waiting Game?

With the RBA keeping rates on hold this month and May still a mystery, playing the waiting game is exactly that – a gamble. And like most gambles, the house often wins.

Rather than trying to outsmart the market, focus on what you can control: your financial readiness, your long-term goals, and your understanding of the property you’re considering.

Remember, property is a long game. And over time, short-term rate changes tend to matter a lot less than you think.

 

Ready to Explore Your Options?

If you’re considering buying or refinancing, it’s a great time to reassess your borrowing capacity and see what’s possible. We’re here to help you make smart, confident decisions – whether you’re buying now or planning ahead.

Reach out today for a no-obligation chat. Your future self might thank you.