Will the Australian Property Market Crash in 2025
If you’ve found yourself Googling “Will the Australian Property Market Crash in 2025” lately, you’re not alone. With so much noise out there, it’s hard to know whether to hit pause or press go on your property plans. And let’s be honest, the media loves a clickbait headline.
So today, I thought we could break down the latest data from CoreLogic and get some real world insight from the expert team here at Indigo Finance.
Does the Latest Data Tell Us There is an Australian Property Market Crash Coming?
CoreLogic’s April 2025 Housing Chart Pack shows us that despite sensationalised media headlines suggesting a potential Australian property market crash on the horizon, the market remains surprisingly resilient.
Here’s the snapshot:
| Metric | Value (to March 2025) |
|---|---|
| National 3-month value change | +0.7% |
| Annual dwelling value change | +3.4% |
| Capital cities combined | +0.5% (3-month) |
| Regional markets combined | +1.4% (3-month) |
Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth have hit record high prices, with buyer activity still strong in these capitals. In fact, Adelaide and Perth have even overtaken Melbourne for median dwelling values.
Are House Prices Rising or Slowing?
That depends where you’re looking. Some markets are flatlining. Others are still climbing.
Domain’s latest forecast tips a 5–7% increase across Australia in 2025, but it’s not one-size-fits-all.
In simple terms:
- Brisbane and Adelaide: Still in growth phase
- Melbourne and Hobart: Sluggish or dipping
- Sydney: Up slightly, but well below 2021 peaks
This isn’t a boom. It’s more like a slow cruise uphill (with occasional bumps), just as it has been if you average out historical data.
What’s Driving the Market in 2025?
If you want to know where prices are heading, watch these four levers:
1. Interest Rates
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.1% in April. But with inflation now in the target range, a rate cut could be around the corner. Markets are pricing in a 96% chance of a May cut.
2. Supply Shortage
New listings are down 4.1% on the 5-year average. Total stock is down 11%. This suggests that while demand is increasing, supply is not able to keep up and thus would be driving growth.
3. Investor Activity
Investor lending has risen 22.2% in the last year. Driven by increasing rental yields in cities like Perth and Darwin, there appears to be more investors looking to become active in the market.
4. Affordability
This is the pressure point. With median house prices over $1 million in several capitals, buyer borrowing power is stretched. That’s keeping a lid on runaway growth. It’s hardly suggesting there’s an Australian property market crash coming soon though.
So… Will the Australian Property Market Crash?
Short answer: highly unlikely based on expert opinion and the data at hand.
A crash needs a trigger. A major external shock, possibly a flood of forced sales, or perhaps a lending freeze.
Right now, we’re seeing none of that.
Instead, what we’re seeing is a normalisation. Some markets are cooling after big post-COVID runs. Others are still playing catch-up.
Think of it like this: The market’s not about to fall off a cliff. I think we could describe it as “pulling into a rest stop after a big drive”.
Here’s what I think we are likely to see in 2025:
- Slower price growth in high-value suburbs
- Gains continuing in lifestyle and the more affordable areas
- More negotiation power for savvy buyers
- Potential price upswing if rates continue to fall
What Does All This Mean for You?
If you’re:
- A first-home buyer
- Watch for early rate cuts. Have your pre-approval ready so you’re in front of the curve.
- Moving house
- Keep in mind that there might be better value and more room to negotiate in premium suburbs compared to usual.
- An investor
- I believe that strong rental yields, tight market supply and lowering interest rates make 2025 an opportune time to assess your goals.
Don’t Take Advice About the Property Market from Friends or Family
Even seasoned experts get property projections wrong. So how on earth could your well meaning friends and family know what is going to happen next?
At Indigo, we don’t do “crystal balls” and therefore we never guess. We track the latest data and stay plugged into leading experts, so that helps guide our knowledge. That’s how we’re always able to keep our clients on the cutting edge of what’s going on.
For now, all the advanced research and data is telling us that it’s a great time for clients to stay calm, curious and informed.
If you’re wondering how these trends affect your personal finance or borrowing capacity, reach out. We’ll walk you through your options. We don’t do pressure or hype. We just want to help educate people looking to grow.
